What a prediction market is
Shares that pay $1 if you are right. Prices that are probabilities.
A prediction market turns a question into something tradeable. Will Bitcoin be higher in five minutes? Each question becomes a market with two sides, and on Fortell those sides are UP and DOWN.
An UP share pays exactly $1 if the price finishes higher and $0 if it does not. That single rule creates everything else. If UP trades at 62 cents, the market is saying: this happens about 62% of the time. Prices are probabilities wearing a dollar sign.
Why this is different from betting
Against a bookmaker you bet at prices the house sets with a margin built in, and you are stuck until the event settles. In a prediction market you trade at market prices, you can exit before the outcome by selling, and your counterparty is a program that quotes both sides.
The skill is not predicting the future perfectly. It is noticing when the price disagrees with reality. If you think an outcome is a coin flip and the market charges 65 cents, you do not need a crystal ball; you need the discipline to take the other side and the patience to do it many times.