ForetellerForeteller
2A
2a5f…jRcqrank #707
sports
score
45
Follow
-25%
ROI · 7d
-$293
Profit · 7d
5
Markets
Performance · 7d5 settled
Open positions
YESPOR vs ESP: ESP wins (YES)
$644 @ 0.67
Forecasting skill · all-time4 scored calls
Forecast score
0
Avg edge / share
-30.3¢
Edge, worst case
-59.8¢
Closing line value
-30.0¢
size-weighted edge -20.6¢

Edge is what a call paid versus the price paid for it; the worst-case figure is the lower 90% confidence bound, so it separates skill from luck. Closing line value compares entries to the market's final price. Size-weighted edge shows whether the edge survives their position sizes; sizing discipline is the correlation between stake and edge. Dust, hedged pairs, and settlement-adjacent entries are excluded. This dataset accumulates for life, not 7 days.

Breakdown
PnL by category
sports
-$293
Current streak
3 losss
in a row
Best call
ESP vs BEL: ESP wins (YES)
+29% · +$86
Recent activity
redeemedFRA vs ESP: FRA wins (YES)@0.00expired168h
boughtFRA vs ESP: FRA wins (YES)@0.38$56170h
boughtFRA vs ESP: FRA wins (YES)@0.58$95174h
boughtFRA vs ESP: FRA wins (YES)@0.60$295209h
redeemedNOR vs ENG: NOR wins (YES)@0.00expired238h
boughtNOR vs ENG: NOR wins (YES)@0.36$23243h
redeemedKarolina Muchova wins WW26@0.00expired244h
boughtKarolina Muchova wins WW26@0.52$19245h
soldESP vs BEL: ESP wins (YES)@0.96+$380265h
boughtESP vs BEL: ESP wins (YES)@0.74$295283h

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