ForetellerForeteller
3R
3rLf…LgsKrank #432
cryptoother
score
48
Follow
+2%
ROI · 7d
$28
Profit · 7d
32
Markets
Performance · 7d33 settled
Open positions

No open positions.

Forecasting skill · all-time30 scored calls
Forecast score
2
Avg edge / share
-5.5¢
Edge, worst case
-19.3¢
Closing line value
-3.5¢
crypto 2 · 28 callssize-weighted edge -5.2¢sizing discipline +0.0033% positive days

Edge is what a call paid versus the price paid for it; the worst-case figure is the lower 90% confidence bound, so it separates skill from luck. Closing line value compares entries to the market's final price. Size-weighted edge shows whether the edge survives their position sizes; sizing discipline is the correlation between stake and edge. Dust, hedged pairs, and settlement-adjacent entries are excluded. This dataset accumulates for life, not 7 days.

Breakdown
PnL by category
crypto
+$28
Current streak
1 win
in a row
Best call
BTC Up
+249% · +$274
Recent activity
redeemedBTC Up@1.00+$0.80165h
boughtBTC Up@0.65$0.18166h
boughtBTC Up@0.65$0.34166h
redeemedBTC Up@0.00expired166h
boughtBTC Up@0.50$1166h
redeemedBTC Up@0.00expired189h
boughtBTC Up@0.50$3189h
boughtBTC Up@0.50$5189h
redeemedBTC Up@0.00expired212h
boughtBTC Up@0.99$35212h

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