ForetellerForeteller
ET
ETbt…vBoF
sports
score
47
Follow
-77%
ROI · 7d
-$582
Profit · 7d
3
Markets
Performance · 7d3 settled
Open positions
YESESP wins WC26
$783 @ 0.14
Forecasting skill · all-time3 scored calls
Forecast score
4
Avg edge / share
+13.3¢
Edge, worst case
-16.6¢
Closing line value
+13.0¢
size-weighted edge +20.3¢

Edge is what a call paid versus the price paid for it; the worst-case figure is the lower 90% confidence bound, so it separates skill from luck. Closing line value compares entries to the market's final price. Size-weighted edge shows whether the edge survives their position sizes; sizing discipline is the correlation between stake and edge. Dust, hedged pairs, and settlement-adjacent entries are excluded. This dataset accumulates for life, not 7 days.

Breakdown
PnL by category
sports
-$582
Current streak
1 loss
in a row
Best call
NOR vs ENG: ENG wins (YES)
+54% · +$61
Recent activity
redeemedENG vs ARG: ENG wins (YES)@0.00expired145h
boughtENG vs ARG: ENG wins (YES)@0.54$239147h
boughtENG vs ARG: ENG wins (YES)@0.57$175147h
redeemedNOR vs ENG: ENG wins (YES)@1.00+$175238h
boughtNOR vs ENG: ENG wins (YES)@0.65$114247h
redeemedFRA vs MAR: MAR wins (YES)@0.00expired288h
boughtFRA vs MAR: MAR wins (YES)@0.23$229291h
redeemedARG vs EGY: ARG wins (YES)@0.00expired340h
boughtARG vs EGY: ARG wins (YES)@0.18$59341h
boughtARG vs EGY: ARG wins (YES)@0.88$1.0k342h

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